SEMI forecasts record $229 billion in chip equipment sales by 2028

Semiconductor equipment sales are forecast to hit a record $229 billion by 2028, according to industry association SEMI.

The forecast

SEMI’s mid-year forecast, published July 14, 2026, puts total semiconductor manufacturing equipment sales at $165.9 billion in 2026, up 23.2% year over year, rising to $229.5 billion in 2028.

The breakdown shows where the momentum sits:

• Wafer fab equipment reaches $143.9 billion next year
• Test equipment grows 31%
• DRAM equipment jumps 39%

Equipment sales are the most forward-looking indicator the chip industry has. Nobody buys a lithography machine or a test rig for this quarter’s demand; these purchases express what fabs expect to be manufacturing years from now.

Then the market went the other way

Here is the tension. Three days after that forecast, the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index closed 20% below its record and entered a bear market.

Two signals, pointing in opposite directions, from the same industry in the same week. Equipment order books reflect fab capacity decisions made years in advance. Stock prices reflect sentiment made this morning.

Why the gap is the story

The sequencing matters: the forecast came first, so it is not a response to the selloff, which makes the gap between the two more interesting, not less. SEMI was not talking the market back up. It was describing the order pipeline as it stood, and that pipeline says the people who actually build chips are still planning for record expansion through 2028.

One of these signals will turn out to be right. Either the market is early in spotting a slowdown that has not reached the order books yet, or the selloff is sentiment running ahead of an industry whose physical buildout has not blinked. Order books or the market: revisit this one at year end.